Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIA offense: -0.189 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- BUF offense: +0.175 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- Josh Allen (BUF): +0.199 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- BUF defense: -0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
MIA
BUF
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:34 FG BUF (6:34) 2-T.Bass 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. MIA 0 – BUF 3
- Q1 01:23 FG MIA (1:23) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 3 – BUF 3
- Q2 03:26 TD MIA (3:26) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 28-D.Achane for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 9 – BUF 3
- Q2 00:12 FG BUF (:12) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. MIA 10 – BUF 6
- Q3 07:24 TD BUF (7:24) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 13-M.Hollins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 10 – BUF 12
- Q3 03:02 FG MIA (3:02) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 13 – BUF 12
- Q3 02:17 TD BUF (2:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – BUF 18
- Q4 12:19 TD MIA (12:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 19 – BUF 20
- Q4 06:24 TD BUF (6:24) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 85-Q.Morris for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-D.Hand]. Caught 1 yd. into end zone. MIA 20 – BUF 26
- Q4 01:45 TD MIA (1:45) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 17-J.Waddle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 26 – BUF 27
- Q4 00:10 FG BUF (:10) 2-T.Bass 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. MIA 27 – BUF 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BUF 4th & 7 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(13:34) 8-S.Martin punts 49 yards to MIA 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 83-M.Washington to MIA 17 for -1 yards (39-C.Lewis).
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Q1 MIA 4th & 11 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(10:39) 16-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to BUF 34, Center-49-M.Overton. 29-B.Codrington pushed ob at MIA 37 for 29 yards (16-J.Bailey).
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Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 89%
(6:34) 2-T.Bass 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 2 at the 21Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 90%
(1:23) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%
(7:24) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 13-M.Hollins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 4 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(3:02) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 25Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 86%
(13:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle to BUF 21 for 4 yards (31-R.Douglas). Buffalo challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
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Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 43 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 46%
(:10) 2-T.Bass 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.