4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 21

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.56 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP