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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 22

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 2-T.Bass 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.28 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model