Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

(13:34) 8-S.Martin punts 49 yards to MIA 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 83-M.Washington to MIA 17 for -1 yards (39-C.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.70 EP
56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model