4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 25

Miami Dolphins 13 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(13:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle to BUF 21 for 4 yards (31-R.Douglas). Buffalo challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.42 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 35, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model