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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 5

Miami Dolphins 10 – Buffalo Bills 12

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.42 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 5, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP