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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2024-10-20 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

HOU
30.9%
GB
69.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Jordan Love (GB): +0.226 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB defense: -0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 22
–
GB 28
Projected margin: GB by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

HOU

Azeez Al-Shaair LB Out Knee
Kamari Lassiter CB Out Shoulder
Henry To'oTo'o LB Out Concussion
Jimmie Ward S Out Groin
Robert Woods WR Out Foot
Steven Sims WR Questionable Back
Folorunso Fatukasi DT Questionable Shoulder

GB

Devonte Wyatt DT Out Ankle
Dontayvion Wicks WR Questionable Shoulder
Colby Wooden DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 22
–
GB 24

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:51 FG HOU (11:51) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. PENALTY on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. HOU 3 – GB 0
  • Q2 13:20 TD GB (13:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 3 – GB 6
  • Q2 11:56 TD HOU (11:56) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – GB 7
  • Q2 08:57 TD GB (8:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – GB 13
  • Q2 04:34 FG HOU (4:34) 15-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 13 – GB 14
  • Q2 01:16 TD HOU (1:16) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 19 – GB 14
  • Q3 07:31 TD GB (7:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 8-J.Jacobs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 19 – GB 20
  • Q4 01:48 FG HOU (1:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 22 – GB 21
  • Q4 00:03 FG GB (:03) 17-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. HOU 22 – GB 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (11:51) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. PENALTY on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (9:47) 19-D.Whelan punts 47 yards to HOU 20, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 14 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 49%

    (5:14) 6-T.Townsend punts 36 yards to GB 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:41) 6-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to GB 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 26-C.Ballentine MUFFS catch, touched at GB 11, RECOVERED by HOU-29-M.Stewart at GB 11.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 73%

    (4:34) 15-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to HOU 18, Center-42-M.Orzech. 25-D.King to HOU 20 for 2 yards (42-M.Orzech).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:58) 6-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to GB 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at GB 29 for 8 yards (34-T.Hairston).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:56) 6-T.Townsend punts 66 yards to GB -1, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Reed to GB 4 for 5 yards (32-K.Hollman).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (4:50) 19-D.Whelan punts 62 yards to HOU 25, impetus ends at HOU 28, Center-42-M.Orzech. 25-D.King ran ob at HOU 25 for no gain.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 17 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 27%

    (1:13) 6-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to GB 15, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 12 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:22) 19-D.Whelan punts 66 yards to HOU 21, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-T.Dell to HOU 32 for 11 yards (45-Er.Wilson).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:16) 6-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 61 yards to HOU 25, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-T.Dell to HOU 38 for 13 yards (39-Z.Anderson).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 15 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (1:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.