Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 65

Houston Texans 19 – Green Bay Packers 21

(6:56) 6-T.Townsend punts 66 yards to GB -1, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Reed to GB 4 for 5 yards (32-K.Hollman).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.90 EP
54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model