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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 67

Green Bay Packers 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 19-D.Whelan punts 47 yards to HOU 20, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 25, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP