Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 69

Houston Texans 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 6-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to GB 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 26-C.Ballentine MUFFS catch, touched at GB 11, RECOVERED by HOU-29-M.Stewart at GB 11.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.87 EP
63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model