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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 34

Houston Texans 10 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 15-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.24 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model