Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 57

Houston Texans 19 – Green Bay Packers 21

(10:16) 6-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.85 EP
66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model