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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2024-10-20 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

DET
57.5%
MIN
42.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.180 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • MIN on 7 more days rest than DET
  • QB edge to DET: Sam Darnold (MIN) +0.098 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.215 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • MIN defense: -0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 25
–
MIN 22
Projected margin: DET by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

DET

Christian Mahogany G Out Illness
Kevin Zeitler G Questionable Groin
Carlton Davis CB Questionable Quadricep

MIN

Blake Cashman LB Out Toe
Akayleb Evans CB Out Hip
Patrick Jones DE Questionable Shoulder
Harrison Phillips DT Questionable Shoulder
T.J. Hockenson TE Questionable Knee
Aaron Jones RB Questionable nan
Dalton Risner G Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 31
–
MIN 29

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:50 TD MIN (11:50) 33-A.Jones left tackle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – MIN 6
  • Q1 05:39 FG MIN (5:39) 16-W.Reichard 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. DET 0 – MIN 10
  • Q2 13:51 TD DET (13:51) 26-J.Gibbs right end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – MIN 10
  • Q2 08:44 TD DET (8:44) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – MIN 10
  • Q2 00:29 TD DET (:29) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 20 – MIN 10
  • Q3 10:47 TD MIN (10:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 21 – MIN 16
  • Q3 05:50 TD DET (5:50) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 11-K.Raymond for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 27 – MIN 17
  • Q4 14:28 FG MIN (14:28) 16-W.Reichard 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. DET 28 – MIN 20
  • Q4 06:09 FG MIN (6:09) 16-W.Reichard 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. DET 28 – MIN 23
  • Q4 06:00 TD MIN (6:00) 5-D.Montgomery left tackle to DET 35 for 5 yards (44-J.Metellus; 24-C.Bynum). FUMBLES (44-J.Metellus), RECOVERED by MIN-0-I.Pace at DET 36. 0-I.Pace for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-60-G.Glasgow, Offensive Holding, declined. DET 28 – MIN 29
  • Q4 00:19 FG DET (:19) 39-J.Bates 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 31 – MIN 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:36) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 42-J.Reeves-Maybin. 42-J.Reeves-Maybin right end to DET 34 for 1 yard (44-J.Metellus; 30-C.Ham).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (10:18) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 64%

    (5:39) 16-W.Reichard 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (4:10) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to MIN 10, Center-49-H.Hatten. 4-B.Powell to MIN 20 for 10 yards (53-T.Nowaske).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:01) 17-R.Wright punts 60 yards to DET 17, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 31 for 14 yards (26-Th.Jackson; 11-T.Sherfield).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 34%

    (11:31) 17-R.Wright punts 34 yards to DET 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%

    (14:28) 16-W.Reichard 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 11 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 44%

    (10:19) 3-J.Fox punts 38 yards to MIN 9, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-29-K.Vildor.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%

    (6:09) 16-W.Reichard 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 20 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:25) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to MIN 17, Center-49-H.Hatten. 4-B.Powell to MIN 22 for 5 yards (30-K.Dorsey).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:41) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to DET 21, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 30 for 9 yards (11-T.Sherfield).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 14 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 87%

    (:19) 39-J.Bates 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.