4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 24

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Detroit Lions 28

What Actually Happened

(14:28) 16-W.Reichard 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.07 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 34, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT +0.52 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model