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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 17-R.Wright punts 60 yards to DET 17, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 31 for 14 yards (26-Th.Jackson; 11-T.Sherfield).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.71 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 77, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 34, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model