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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 30

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Detroit Lions 28

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 16-W.Reichard 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.29 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model