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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 29 – Detroit Lions 28

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to DET 21, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 30 for 9 yards (11-T.Sherfield).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.10 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 30, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model