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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 20 at the 80

Detroit Lions 28 – Minnesota Vikings 29

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to MIN 17, Center-49-H.Hatten. 4-B.Powell to MIN 22 for 5 yards (30-K.Dorsey).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.38 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 80, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 37, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model