HOU @ NE — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans

Home

New England Patriots

HC Jerod Mayo

Sunday 2024-10-13 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

HOU

68.1%

31.9%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

Drake Maye (NE): -0.541 EPA/dropback in prior starts (NE starting Drake Maye in place of Jacoby Brissett)
NE offense: -0.233 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
NE defense: -0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
Drake Maye (NE) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample
HOU crossing 2 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 23

–

NE 18

Projected margin: HOU by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

HOU

Kamari Lassiter CB Out Shoulder

Jimmie Ward S Out Groin

Robert Woods WR Out Foot

Derek Barnett DE Questionable Shoulder

Kurt Hinish DT Questionable Calf

Joe Mixon RB Questionable Ankle

NE

Rhamondre Stevenson RB Out Foot

Anfernee Jennings LB Questionable Shoulder

Isaiah Bolden CB Questionable Hamstring

Kendrick Bourne WR Questionable Knee

Joe Cardona LS Questionable Calf

Kyle Dugger S Questionable Ankle

Marcus Jones CB Questionable Groin

Nick Leverett C Questionable Ankle

K.J. Osborn WR Questionable Shoulder

Layden Robinson G Questionable Ankle

Sione Takitaki LB Questionable Knee

Marco Wilson CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 41

–

NE 21

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 09:18 TD HOU (9:18) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 3-T.Dell for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – NE 0
Q1 03:18 TD HOU (3:18) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 28-J.Mixon for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – NE 0
Q2 00:16 TD NE (:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 9-K.Boutte for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10-Maye 1st NFL TD pass. HOU 14 – NE 6
Q3 13:31 TD HOU (13:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 1-S.Diggs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on HOU-1-S.Diggs, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. HOU 20 – NE 7
Q3 07:00 FG HOU (7:00) 15-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 24 – NE 7
Q3 05:26 FG HOU (5:26) 15-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 27 – NE 7
Q3 01:05 TD NE (1:05) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 27 – NE 13
Q4 13:23 TD HOU (13:23) 28-J.Mixon left end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 33 – NE 14
Q4 09:31 TD NE (9:31) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 34 – NE 20
Q4 07:58 TD HOU (7:58) (Shotgun) 31-D.Pierce right end for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 40 – NE 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(7:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to HOU 36, Center-46-T.Addington. 82-S.Sims ran ob at NE 45 for 19 yards (52-C.Jacobs).
Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 22

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 90%

(14:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q2 NE 4th & 18 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23%

(11:32) 17-B.Baringer punts 48 yards to HOU 19, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.
Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 27%

(8:05) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to HOU 9, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.
Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 86

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(5:37) 6-T.Townsend punts 65 yards to NE 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at NE 49 for 28 yards (43-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on NE-27-M.Dial, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 21.
Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(2:48) 17-B.Baringer punts 54 yards to HOU 26, Center-46-T.Addington. 82-S.Sims to HOU 24 for -2 yards (41-B.Schooler). NE 17-Baringer 23rd consecutive game with a 50-yd punt, longest active streak in NFL.
Q2 HOU 4th & 15 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(1:06) 6-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to NE 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
Q3 NE 4th & 9 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(12:08) 17-B.Baringer punts 58 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-T.Addington. 82-S.Sims to HOU 20 for 5 yards (53-C.Elliss).
Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 21

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 91%

(7:00) 15-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 28

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 83%

(5:26) 15-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 57

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP

p(convert) 48%

(14:14) 6-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to NE 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.
Q4 HOU 4th & 11 at the 79 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(3:40) 6-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to NE 40, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-M.Jones to HOU 44 for 16 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale). FUMBLES (33-D.Ogunbowale), ball out of bounds at HOU 44.
Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 39 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 60%

(2:50) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles up the middle to HOU 33 for 6 yards (27-M.Bryant).
Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 26 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.57 EP

p(convert) 45% p(FG) 86%

(1:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to HOU 20 for 6 yards (27-M.Bryant).