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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 73

New England Patriots 7 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 17-B.Baringer punts 58 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-T.Addington. 82-S.Sims to HOU 20 for 5 yards (53-C.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.12 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 31, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model