Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 18 at the 67

New England Patriots 0 – Houston Texans 14

(11:32) 17-B.Baringer punts 48 yards to HOU 19, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.00 EP
77% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model