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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 57

Houston Texans 27 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 6-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to NE 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.47 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 57, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP