Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 62

Houston Texans 14 – New England Patriots 0

(1:06) 6-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to NE 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.49 EP
72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model