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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 76

New England Patriots 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to HOU 36, Center-46-T.Addington. 82-S.Sims ran ob at NE 45 for 19 yards (52-C.Jacobs).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.88 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model