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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
Sunday 2024-10-13 · 16:25 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

ATL
59.6%
CAR
40.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.187 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • ATL offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (ATL): +0.127 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • ATL on 3 more days rest than CAR

Predicted Final Score

ATL 25
–
CAR 20
Projected margin: ATL by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

ATL

Troy Andersen LB Out Knee
Nate Landman LB Questionable Calf

CAR

Austin Corbett C Out Biceps
Josey Jewell LB Out Hamstring
Taylor Moton T Out Elbow
Andrew Raym C Out Concussion
Tommy Tremble TE Out Concussion
Jadeveon Clowney LB Doubtful Shoulder
Dane Jackson CB Questionable Hamstring
Diontae Johnson WR Questionable Ankle
A'Shawn Robinson DE Questionable Ankle
Ian Thomas TE Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 38
–
CAR 20

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:00 TD CAR (6:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 5-Di.Johnson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – CAR 6
  • Q1 00:43 TD ATL (:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – CAR 7
  • Q2 08:51 FG CAR (8:51) 4-E.Pineiro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. ATL 7 – CAR 10
  • Q2 06:10 TD ATL (6:10) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-26-C.Smith-Wade, Low Block, 1 yard, enforced between downs. ATL 13 – CAR 10
  • Q2 01:46 TD ATL (1:46) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 21 – CAR 10
  • Q2 00:12 TD CAR (:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 17-X.Legette for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 22 – CAR 16
  • Q3 10:07 FG ATL (10:07) 6-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 25 – CAR 17
  • Q3 04:55 FG CAR (4:55) 4-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. ATL 25 – CAR 20
  • Q3 00:10 FG ATL (:10) 6-Y.Koo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 28 – CAR 20
  • Q4 05:45 TD ATL (5:45) 25-T.Allgeier up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-93-L.Ray was injured during the play. ATL 34 – CAR 20
  • Q4 02:15 FG ATL (2:15) 6-Y.Koo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 38 – CAR 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:23) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to ATL 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 26-A.Williams to ATL 21 for no gain (32-L.Johnson).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:43) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to CAR 21, Center-49-L.McCullough. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 33 for 12 yards (26-A.Williams; 51-D.Malone). ATL-29-M.Abernathy was injured during the play.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:17) 10-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to ATL 3, Center-44-J.Jansen. 26-A.Williams to ATL 17 for 14 yards (53-C.Cherelus; 83-D.Moore).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (8:51) 4-E.Pineiro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 13 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:10) 10-J.Hekker punts 15 yards to ATL 48, Center-44-J.Jansen. 22-C.Phillips to CAR 37 for 15 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade, 84-F.Franks). PENALTY on CAR-44-J.Jansen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 37.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (10:07) 6-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 89%

    (4:55) 4-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 11 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (:10) 6-Y.Koo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (4:14) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short left to 5-Di.Johnson [17-A.Ebiketie].

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (2:15) 6-Y.Koo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.