Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(13:23) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to ATL 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 26-A.Williams to ATL 21 for no gain (32-L.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.90 EP
71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model