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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 61

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 10-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to ATL 3, Center-44-J.Jansen. 26-A.Williams to ATL 17 for 14 yards (53-C.Cherelus; 83-D.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.56 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 20, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model