Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 63

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 15

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 10-J.Hekker punts 15 yards to ATL 48, Center-44-J.Jansen. 22-C.Phillips to CAR 37 for 15 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade, 84-F.Franks). PENALTY on CAR-44-J.Jansen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 37.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.63 EP
71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model