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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 17

Atlanta Falcons 35 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 6-Y.Koo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +3.82 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 17, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.09 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model