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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 22

Carolina Panthers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 25

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 4-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.41 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 32, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model