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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Monday 2024-10-07 · 20:15 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

NO
49.7%
KC
50.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.140 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Derek Carr (NO): +0.152 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NO 24
–
KC 25
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NO

Willie Gay LB Out Hand
Taysom Hill TE Out Rib
Shane Lemieux G Out Ankle
Cesar Ruiz C Out Knee
Payton Turner DE Out Knee
Kendre Miller RB Doubtful Hamstring
Lucas Patrick G Questionable Groin
Pete Werner LB Questionable Hamstring

KC

Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB Doubtful Illness
Mecole Hardman WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 13
–
KC 26

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:40 TD KC (6:40) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 12:42 FG KC (12:42) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. NO 0 – KC 10
  • Q2 08:43 TD NO (8:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-M.Danna]. NO 6 – KC 10
  • Q2 01:35 FG KC (1:35) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. NO 7 – KC 13
  • Q2 00:09 FG KC (:09) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. NO 7 – KC 16
  • Q4 14:22 TD NO (14:22) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – KC 16
  • Q4 12:00 TD KC (12:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 87-T.Kelce. 1-X.Worthy right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – KC 22
  • Q4 03:07 FG KC (3:07) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. NO 13 – KC 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:58) 43-M.Hayball punts 49 yards to KC 16, Center-49-Z.Wood. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at KC 23 for 7 yards (52-D.Jackson).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 12 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 56 yards to NO 23, Center-41-J.Winchester. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at NO 35 for 12 yards (43-J.Cochrane). PENALTY on NO-36-R.Payton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 33.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 13 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:37) 43-M.Hayball punts 53 yards to KC 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 17-M.Hardman to KC 40 for 13 yards (36-R.Payton; 24-J.Abram).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (12:42) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 90%

    (2:55) 29-K.Hunt right guard to NO 21 for 2 yards (24-J.Abram).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (1:35) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:10) 43-M.Hayball punts 49 yards to KC 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 36 for 6 yards (48-J.Gray).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (:09) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 76%

    (10:18) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 20 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:59) 43-M.Hayball punts 48 yards to KC 10, Center-49-Z.Wood. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 16 for 6 yards (46-A.Prentice).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 58%

    (9:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 84-M.Tipton [27-C.Conner].

  • Q4 KC 4th & 15 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (3:07) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 31%

    (1:51) (Shotgun) 3-J.Haener pass incomplete deep right to 12-C.Olave (35-Ja.Watson).