Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 79

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 56 yards to NO 23, Center-41-J.Winchester. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at NO 35 for 12 yards (43-J.Cochrane). PENALTY on NO-36-R.Payton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.87 EP
66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 79, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model