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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 65

New Orleans Saints 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 43-M.Hayball punts 49 yards to KC 16, Center-49-Z.Wood. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at KC 23 for 7 yards (52-D.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.74 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model