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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 9

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(:09) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.80 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 9, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model