Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 79

New Orleans Saints 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

(1:10) 43-M.Hayball punts 49 yards to KC 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 36 for 6 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.14 EP
62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 79, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model