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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Kansas City Chiefs
4th & 1 at the 23
Kansas City Chiefs 10 – New Orleans Saints 7
What Actually Happened
(2:55) 29-K.Hunt right guard to NO 21 for 2 yards (24-J.Abram).
The Three Options
GO
+2.82 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.48 EP
- 33% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -0.58 EP
KICK
+1.61 EP
- 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
- 10% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT
-0.10 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
