4th & Data
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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
Sunday 2024-09-29 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

NO
62.9%
ATL
37.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • ATL offense: -0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.149 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to NO: Kirk Cousins (ATL) +0.111 vs Derek Carr (NO) +0.161 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NO 25
–
ATL 20
Projected margin: NO by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

NO

Demario Davis LB Out Hamstring
A.T. Perry WR Out Hamstring
Cesar Ruiz C Out Knee
Cedrick Wilson WR Questionable Ankle
Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Hip
Chris Olave WR Questionable Hamstring

ATL

Kaleb McGary T Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 24
–
ATL 26

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:25 TD ATL (11:25) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to NO 3, Center-49-L.McCullough. 22-R.Shaheed MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-12-K.Hodge at NO -8. TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – ATL 6
  • Q1 06:43 TD NO (6:43) (Shotgun) 74-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – ATL 7
  • Q2 13:46 TD NO (13:46) 7-T.Hill left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – ATL 7
  • Q2 10:02 FG ATL (10:02) 6-Y.Koo 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NO 14 – ATL 10
  • Q2 08:05 TD ATL (8:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 12-C.Olave INTERCEPTED by 44-T.Andersen (15-M.Judon) at NO 47. 44-T.Andersen for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 14 – ATL 16
  • Q3 06:50 FG ATL (6:50) 6-Y.Koo 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ** Injury Update: NO-1-A.Taylor has returned to the game. NO 14 – ATL 20
  • Q3 01:08 FG NO (1:08) 19-B.Grupe 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. NO 17 – ATL 20
  • Q4 10:13 FG ATL (10:13) 6-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NO 17 – ATL 23
  • Q4 01:04 TD NO (1:04) 41-A.Kamara left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 23 – ATL 23
  • Q4 00:07 FG ATL (:07) 6-Y.Koo 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NO 24 – ATL 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 12 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 46%

    (11:25) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to NO 3, Center-49-L.McCullough. 22-R.Shaheed MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-12-K.Hodge at NO -8. TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 86%

    (1:51) 7-T.Hill left guard to ATL 20 for 7 yards (55-K.Elliss).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 73%

    (10:02) 6-Y.Koo 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 51%

    (4:56) 43-M.Hayball punts 32 yards to ATL 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 26-A.Williams. ** Injury Update: ATL-33-A.Hamilton has returned to the game.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 29%

    (1:55) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to NO 12, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 36%

    (:38) 43-M.Hayball punts 40 yards to ATL 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-20-P.Werner.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:53) 43-M.Hayball punts 48 yards to ATL 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 87%

    (6:50) 6-Y.Koo 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ** Injury Update: NO-1-A.Taylor has returned to the game.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 11 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 88%

    (1:08) 19-B.Grupe 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 15 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 89%

    (10:13) 6-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (4:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 22-R.Shaheed (20-D.Alford).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 86 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (3:38) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NO 41, Center-49-L.McCullough. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at ATL 42 for 17 yards (44-T.Andersen). ATL-44-T.Andersen was injured during the play.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 40 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 61%

    (:07) 6-Y.Koo 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.