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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 25

New Orleans Saints 14 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 19-B.Grupe 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.03 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model