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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 24

Atlanta Falcons 20 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 6-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.28 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model