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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 40

Atlanta Falcons 23 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(:07) 6-Y.Koo 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.30 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model