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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 35

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(10:02) 6-Y.Koo 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.23 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model