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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 44

New Orleans Saints 14 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 43-M.Hayball punts 32 yards to ATL 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 26-A.Williams. ** Injury Update: ATL-33-A.Hamilton has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.27 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP