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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
Sunday 2024-09-29 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌧 Rain Spread -4.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

CIN
57.8%
CAR
42.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.217 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 25
–
CAR 21
Projected margin: CIN by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

CIN

Trenton Brown T Out Knee
Sheldon Rankins DT Out Hamstring
B.J. Hill DT Doubtful Hamstring
Daijahn Anthony S Questionable Illness
Tanner Hudson TE Questionable Knee

CAR

Lonnie Johnson S Out Hip
Damien Lewis G Out Elbow
Shy Tuttle DT Out Foot
Robert Hunt G Questionable Hip
Diontae Johnson WR Questionable Groin
A'Shawn Robinson DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 34
–
CAR 24

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:08 TD CIN (:08) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – CAR 0
  • Q2 09:38 TD CAR (9:38) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – CAR 6
  • Q2 07:28 TD CIN (7:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – CAR 7
  • Q2 01:13 TD CAR (1:13) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 17-X.Legette for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-J.Ossai]. CIN 14 – CAR 13
  • Q2 00:06 TD CIN (:06) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 31-Z.Moss for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 20 – CAR 14
  • Q3 10:41 TD CIN (10:41) (No Huddle) 30-C.Brown right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 27 – CAR 14
  • Q3 02:57 FG CIN (2:57) 2-E.McPherson 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 31 – CAR 14
  • Q3 00:58 TD CAR (:58) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 5-Di.Johnson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 31 – CAR 20
  • Q4 07:46 FG CAR (7:46) 4-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CIN 31 – CAR 24
  • Q4 01:17 FG CIN (1:17) 2-E.McPherson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 34 – CAR 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (9:12) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CIN 1 for no gain (90-K.Jenkins).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (4:45) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to CAR 7, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 20 for 13 yards (20-D.Turner; 26-T.Anderson).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 57%

    (12:16) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 5-Di.Johnson pushed ob at CIN 36 for 4 yards (20-D.Turner).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (9:10) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to CIN 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 15-C.Jones to CIN 18 for 3 yards (21-N.Scott).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:35) 8-R.Rehkow punts 63 yards to CAR 15, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 3-R.Blackshear pushed ob at CAR 17 for 2 yards (26-T.Anderson).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (5:26) (Punt formation) 10-J.Hekker pass incomplete deep middle to 84-F.Franks (33-D.Anthony).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 13 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 62%

    (2:57) 2-E.McPherson 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 79%

    (7:46) 4-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (4:52) 8-R.Rehkow punts 50 yards to CAR 7, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 8 for 1 yard (33-D.Anthony).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 92 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:31) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to CIN 37, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 12 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 82%

    (1:17) 2-E.McPherson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.