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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 28

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 2-E.McPherson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.62 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model