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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 62

Carolina Panthers 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 28

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to CIN 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 15-C.Jones to CIN 18 for 3 yards (21-N.Scott).

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.16 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP