Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 78

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Carolina Panthers 14

(7:35) 8-R.Rehkow punts 63 yards to CAR 15, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 3-R.Blackshear pushed ob at CAR 17 for 2 yards (26-T.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.87 EP
54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model