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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 92

Carolina Panthers 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to CIN 37, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.58 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 92, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 50, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model