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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 38

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 2-E.McPherson 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.30 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model