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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2024-09-29 · 20:20 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

BUF
48.8%
BAL
51.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.132 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.204 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 24
–
BAL 25
Projected margin: BAL by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

BUF

Tylan Grable T Out Groin
Taron Johnson CB Out Forearm
Terrel Bernard LB Out Pectoral

BAL

Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Out Hamstring
Andrew Vorhees G Doubtful Ankle
Michael Pierce DT Doubtful Shoulder
Tyler Linderbaum C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 10
–
BAL 35

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:02 TD BAL (11:02) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – BAL 6
  • Q1 04:38 FG BUF (4:38) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 3 – BAL 7
  • Q2 15:00 TD BAL (15:00) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 22-D.Henry for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 3 – BAL 13
  • Q2 07:40 TD BAL (7:40) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 43-J.Hill for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 3 – BAL 20
  • Q3 11:31 TD BUF (11:31) (No Huddle) 26-Ty.Johnson left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – BAL 21
  • Q3 02:51 TD BAL (2:51) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 10 – BAL 27
  • Q4 11:31 TD BAL (11:31) 22-D.Henry right tackle to BUF 2 for -1 yards (31-R.Douglas). FUMBLES (31-R.Douglas), recovered by BAL-42-P.Ricard at BUF -3. TOUCHDOWN. BUF 10 – BAL 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:15) 17-J.Allen left guard to BUF 42 for 3 yards (98-T.Jones; 23-T.Simpson).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 29%

    (11:09) 8-S.Martin punts 37 yards to BAL 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 3-D.Harty.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 9 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 74%

    (4:38) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:01) 8-S.Martin punts 42 yards to BAL 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-69-R.Ferguson.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:12) 8-S.Martin punts 59 yards to BAL 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 3-D.Harty to BAL 29 for 13 yards (41-R.Gilliam).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 34%

    (:51) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 20 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (14:03) 11-J.Stout punts 46 yards to BUF 34, Center-46-N.Moore. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 40 for 6 yards (51-J.Ross; 40-M.Harrison).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:05) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to BUF 18, Center-46-N.Moore. 29-B.Codrington MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 19.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 20 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 78%

    (15:00) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:06) 8-S.Martin punts 52 yards to BAL 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 3-D.Harty to BAL 33 for 15 yards (26-Ty.Johnson).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 32%

    (7:25) 11-J.Stout punts 43 yards to BUF 6, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 12 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:49) 8-S.Martin punts 51 yards to BAL 45, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 3-D.Harty to BUF 49 for 6 yards (56-J.Solomon).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 42%

    (3:26) 11-J.Stout punts 34 yards to BUF 11, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington. PENALTY on BAL-16-T.Wallace, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 11.