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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 10 – Baltimore Ravens 35

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 8-S.Martin punts 52 yards to BAL 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 3-D.Harty to BAL 33 for 15 yards (26-Ty.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.68 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model